current position：Home>Power battery Jianghu "changing day" lithium iron phosphate anti super ternary lithium
Power battery Jianghu "changing day" lithium iron phosphate anti super ternary lithium
2021-08-24 17:27:47 【Netease automotive industry】
The Jianghu dispute of vehicle power battery , Under the big stick of the new energy financial subsidy policy, there are several ups and downs . First three element Lithium battery converts lithium iron phosphate battery from “ Iron throne ” Rushed down , Now it's lithium iron phosphate battery's turn , Ternary lithium batteries are at a disadvantage .
Industry statistics show that ,2016 year , The market share of lithium iron phosphate battery reaches 69%, to 2019 In, it fell to 32%. meanwhile , The market share of ternary lithium batteries has increased from 27% Soar to 65%. But from 2020 In a short period of more than a year from now , Lithium iron phosphate battery strong counter attack .
2020 year , The cumulative loading volume of ternary lithium battery is 38.9GWh, In total installed capacity 61.1%, Year on year cumulative decline 4.1%; Cumulative loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery 24.4GWh, In total installed capacity 38.3%, Year on year cumulative growth 20.6%. Get into 2021 year , The warming trend of lithium iron phosphate battery is becoming more and more obvious , The growth rate of its output and installed capacity is much higher than that of ternary lithium battery .
In the tug of war between ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate , In addition to the factors of policy subsidies , The differences in physical properties between the two batteries have also been discussed . at present , A lower cost 、 Lithium iron phosphate battery with better safety has become the first choice for vehicle manufacturers . Focus on lithium iron phosphate battery BYD 、 AVIC lithium 、 The market share of GuoXuan high tech is rising . The whole industry is also setting off a tide of expanding the production of lithium iron phosphate batteries .
Lithium iron phosphate inverse super ternary lithium
According to the latest data released by China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance ,7 Monthly domestic power battery loading volume 11.3GWh, Among them, ternary lithium batteries are loaded in total 5.5GWh, rose 67.5%, fell 8.2%; A total of lithium iron phosphate batteries were loaded 5.8GWh, rose 235.5%, Sequential rise 13.4%.
This is the next year 5 The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate battery is after the first super ternary lithium battery in recent three years , The monthly loading volume also exceeded that of ternary lithium battery for the first time in recent three years , It has realized the double transcendence of monthly output and loading volume .
If you lengthen the timeline ,1-7 month , The cumulative loading volume of ternary lithium battery is 35.6GWh, In total installed capacity 55.8%, Year on year cumulative increase 124.3%; Cumulative loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery 28.0GWh, In total installed capacity 43.9%, Year on year cumulative increase 333.0%. Although in terms of installed capacity and market share , Lithium iron phosphate battery still lags behind ternary lithium battery , But in terms of year-on-year growth , Lithium iron phosphate battery is higher than ternary lithium battery 200 Multiple percentage points .
production , Market share of lithium iron phosphate battery 、 The year-on-year growth rate exceeded that of ternary lithium battery .1-7 month , The cumulative output of ternary lithium battery 44.8GWh, Proportion in total output 48.7%, Year on year cumulative growth 148.2%; Cumulative output of lithium iron phosphate battery 47.0GWh, Proportion in total output 51.1%, Year on year cumulative growth 310.6%.
For such a change in the pattern of the battery industry , The reporter of the Economic Observer interviewed a number of power battery head companies . Ningde times means , In the future, both ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate will maintain rapid growth , Do many things at once , Serve consumers in different market segments .
GuoXuan high tech believes that , With the improvement of industry technology , Lithium iron phosphate has regained the attention of vehicle enterprises , It is the inevitable trend of industry development . At present, a number of Star car enterprises and new forces of car making have launched lithium iron phosphate models , International automobile brands also intend to test the water with lithium iron phosphate batteries , It plays a positive role in promoting the market share of lithium iron phosphate battery .
According to the reporter , For nearly a year , Include tesla 、 Xiao Peng and other car companies , They have started to launch lithium iron phosphate battery models , At the same time, it has driven the rapid rise of sales of its models .
It is worth mentioning that , Iron phosphorus phosphate battery can achieve a high share , The commercial vehicle market has contributed a lot .2016 year , The Ministry of industry and information technology has issued regulations , Prohibit the use of ternary lithium batteries in new energy commercial vehicles , therefore , This type of vehicle can only be equipped with lithium iron phosphate battery .
According to the data of Institute of Higher Engineering ,2019 The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery in China is about 19.98GWh, Among them, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery assembled for new energy bus and special vehicle power battery is about 18.24GWh, The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery for passenger cars is only 1.74GWh.
An unnamed person from a power battery head company told the economic observer that , An important reason for the increase in the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries is , The capacity of domestic lithium iron phosphate battery materials is greater than that of nickel cobalt manganese ternary lithium battery materials , There are also many manufacturers that can produce lithium iron phosphate batteries that meet the needs of automobile enterprises , At present, the power battery market is out of stock , Therefore, lithium iron phosphate battery has been more widely used .
“ Although the energy density of lithium iron phosphate is slightly lower , But the price is relatively cheap 、 The security should be higher , The proportion of sales increased rapidly . future , It should be widely used in models below medium and high end , After all, cost-effective advantages , With the application of fast charging technology , This configuration will be more attractive to vehicle manufacturers and consumers ; Moreover, lithium iron phosphate battery has a broad market for energy storage , future 5 It is expected that there will be 300GWh About energy storage scale demand .” Beijing Qi Haizhen, President of Teyi sunshine new energy, said .
Expansion of lithium iron phosphate production
With the continuous recovery of lithium iron phosphate battery market share , Various power battery manufacturers have expanded their production capacity 、 Advance layout . meanwhile , Some upstream enterprises that see market opportunities are also ready to move .
According to incomplete statistics of Gaogong lithium battery , First half of this year , New projects in the lithium battery industry chain reached 123 individual , The total investment has exceeded 5332 One hundred million yuan （ Excluding commencement items ）. As the main force of lithium battery capacity expansion , The new planned capacity of power battery reaches 745GWh, The total investment exceeds 2587 One hundred million yuan , Over 10 billion projects account for 5 become , The average investment of a single project exceeds 92 One hundred million yuan .
In terms of capacity scale , The scale of production expansion exceeds 100GWh There is the era of Ningde 、 AVIC lithium 、 Yiwei lithium energy 、 Ruipu energy and other companies .
This year, 4 month , At the high-end dialogue between entrepreneurs and alumni of new energy and new energy intelligent vehicles held by Shanghai Jiaotong University , Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde times, once said publicly , Because lithium iron phosphate is cheaper , And with the increase of charging pile facilities , The range of new energy vehicles is not that long , In the power battery market , The market share of lithium iron phosphate will gradually increase , The proportion of ternary lithium batteries will be reduced .
8 month 12 Japan , Ningde Times announced that , Will issue shares to raise no more than 582 One hundred million yuan , be used for 5 Big base 137GWh Expansion of lithium battery production . To the outside world , Of these new capacity , Lithium iron phosphate may occupy a large share .
There is a view in the industry that , Ningde era, which started as ternary lithium battery , Or be challenged in market share due to the ascendancy of lithium iron phosphate battery . however , According to the statistics of power battery application branch of China chemical and Physical Power Industry Association , The ningde era 2020 In, China's power lithium-ion battery enterprises ranked first in the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary lithium battery , Lithium iron phosphate market accounts for 58.9%, The market share of ternary lithium is 42.16%.
As “ A bet on ” The biggest player of lithium iron phosphate , Since last year, almost all of BYD's power battery projects in many parts of the country are lithium iron phosphate blade battery projects . Incomplete statistics show that , By the end of this year 4 End of month , BYD has built 、 The capacity of lithium iron phosphate blade battery under construction and planning is close to 135GWh.
Besides , AVIC lithium 、 GuoXuan high tech, Yiwei lithium energy and other battery industries “ The second tier ” The player , It is also increasing investment in lithium iron phosphate battery project .
GuoXuan high tech said ,2021 Since then , The company has been in Feidong 、 Yichun and other places invest in the construction of battery material projects , Improve the company's lithium battery raw material supply . Feidong GuoXuan is at the upstream end , It is planned to build an annual output of 10 10000 ton lithium battery cathode material production line and 20 10000 ton battery grade iron phosphate production line , So as to ensure that the supply chain 、 Strengthen cost control ; In Yichun , GuoXuan high tech is in Yifeng 、 Fengxin lithium battery material projects have been implemented one after another , After the project is completed , Expected annual output of lithium carbonate 10 Ten thousand tons of .
As the leader of lithium iron phosphate materials in China , German nano is even busier “ joy ”. according to an uncompleted statistic , from 2020 year 3 Month to year 1 month , German nano has announced that the total investment in the lithium iron phosphate production project exceeds 40 One hundred million yuan .
7 month 29 Japan , German nano pointed out when replying to investors' questions ,“ In the first half of the year, the capacity of lithium iron phosphate of the company was 8 Ten thousand tons of / Every year, ,7 New month 4 Start trial production with a capacity of 10000 tons . With the increasing market demand for lithium iron phosphate , Enterprises in the industry are actively expanding production , The company will also steadily promote the construction of production expansion projects .”
Some other upstream enterprises also benefit from it . Longbai group and CNNC titanium dioxide, the top two leaders in the domestic titanium dioxide industry 、 Xinyang Fengdu in the fertilizer industry recently announced the investment in the construction of lithium iron phosphate project .“ At least to 2025 Years ago , The trend of faster growth of lithium iron phosphate batteries will continue . But considering the current car consumption M Type distribution is serious , The future is bound to return to normal , So in the medium and long term , With technology 、 cost 、 Security optimization , Ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate battery will reach a relative 1：1 Stable situation of .” Qi Haikun said .
But the rapid expansion of production capacity has also raised concerns in the industry . The above insiders point out that , One side , The price of raw materials has risen by a large margin 、 The production expansion progress is slow , The follow-up may seriously affect the growth of the market , So as to form internal competition in the upstream ; On the other hand , Downstream in order to expand the market , When the policy does not increase subsidies , Instead, the terminal selling price of car enterprises will decline , So as to further squeeze the profit space of battery enterprises .
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