current position:Home>2021 is not suitable for buying a car? The shortage of auto chips may last until at least next year

2021 is not suitable for buying a car? The shortage of auto chips may last until at least next year

2021-08-26 02:19:44 Luca car

suffer " epidemic situation " Influence ,2020 In the first half of the year, the global car market experienced a low tide . After a brief recovery , Epidemic situation again " Aimed at " In the field of automotive chips . Although in the first half of this year ," Chip shortage " The phenomenon " accident " Help the public 、 BMW and other auto companies have achieved good profit margins . But in the long run , I can't even build a car , What else is profit margin .

As a result, the house leaks and rains at night , Just after everyone thought that the chip crisis had peaked in the second quarter of this year ," The delta " The virus has hit the auto industry again . Maybe " Chip shortage " The worst has not yet come , The supply and demand of chips in the whole automobile industry is expected to reach 2022 even to the extent that 2023 It will take years to basically recover . So what is the current auto market ?

Europe, America and Japan " Not one less "

Earlier, when Volkswagen Group announced its first half earnings , Expressed concern about the chip problem in the third quarter , Now it seems that you are right . Previously, Volkswagen Group tilted the chip to Porsche 、 High profit models such as Audi , But now it seems that even Audi will be affected . A few days ago , One FAW - Volkswagen Audi plans to stop production of its CKD Rumors about the model detonated the network . But anyway , Audi in the second half of the year can't be so calm .

In the case of Mercedes Benz and BMW, it is impossible to watch a play on shore , from 7 In terms of sales in January , Mercedes C Class and Mercedes Benz E The sales volume of the first class fell by more than 50%. BMW is targeting its BMW this year X3 Wait for the hot models , Over and over again " With reduction ", To reduce dependence on some chips . Even so , The relevant person in charge of BMW also said , From the beginning of this year , BMW's cumulative loss of production capacity has also reached about 3 Thousands of cars .

Musk on the other side of the ocean also has chip problems , Rare direct naming of Bosch and Renesas chip suppliers . When the German factory project is always not going well , The chip problem makes Tesla worse in terms of production capacity . As a traditional car enterprise, General Motors , In the second half of the year, production in North America is expected to decrease by about 10 Thousands of cars . Ford also suffered from semiconductor shortage in the second quarter , The estimated global loss is about 70 10000 production capacity .

What is more important is the impact on the new energy products of the two car companies , Recently, General Motors plans to stop production of Chevrolet Bolt EV And some new energy models , This is a " Chip shortage " GM plans to suspend production of electric vehicles for the first time since . And Ford , The plan is to 3 Quarterly Orders Mustang Mach-E, The delivery time is delayed 6 Zhou .

Toyota originally had a more relaxed environment than its competitors on chip supply , But in the recent epidemic in Southeast Asia " Out of control " Under the circumstances , It still has a great impact on its parts procurement . before ,8 In January, Toyota began to suspend production at two factories in Brazil . at present , Toyota is expected to 9 Global production decreased by about 35 Thousands of cars , This is almost as good as Toyota 9 Of monthly planned output 40%.

Honda 7 The year-on-year decline in sales in the Chinese market in January was 20.9%, Of the two joint ventures , The situation of GAC Honda is slightly better , The year-on-year decrease is 10.3%, Dongfeng Honda fell by 31.6%. nissan 8 In June, due to the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia , Semiconductor suppliers are greatly affected , Will close 2 Sunday's factory in Tennessee .

The scenery is unique here ?

This time, " The delta " The virus has seriously hit the global supply of automotive chips , Someone has to say , Almost all the major car companies in front are on the list , Have domestic car enterprises not been affected ? In fact, under the environment of economic globalization , Of course, Chinese auto brands can't be alone , However, the degree of impact is not as serious as that of overseas auto enterprises , This is mainly due to three reasons .

First , Although the growth of independent brands has been rapid in recent years , However, in terms of volume, it is still inferior to the joint venture car enterprises , If the amount is small, the natural impact will be smaller . secondly , The use of chip resources by overseas automobile enterprises , We need to coordinate the global market . Especially those listed above, such as Volkswagen 、 Toyota 、 Global giants such as General Motors , For their popular markets and models, they need to weigh again and again . And independent brands don't have much " Be of two minds ", They mainly face the Chinese market , So in the case of concentrated fire , The problem of lack of chips is not so exaggerated .

Of course, there is one more point , That is, China's market supervision of automobile chips . Earlier this month. , The State Administration of market supervision and Administration said , Price monitoring and reporting clues will be targeted , To investigate the dealers suspected of driving up car chips . In a special environment , The regulatory authorities will also continue to pay attention to the market price order of important commodities such as automobile chips , Investigate and deal with possible hoarding 、 The act of driving up prices . These news can squeeze " Chip shortage " Bubbles , Avoid blind price increases , Help release real chip capacity .

And take this opportunity , Also let some countries begin to aim at this market , Strive to establish its own semiconductor industry chain , This includes China 、 South Korea 、 Singapore etc. . In particular, China's auto market has accounted for nearly half of the world's total 30% Industrial scale , But according to the relevant data , The self-sufficiency rate of domestic automotive chips is still insufficient 10%.

Korea Hyundai 、 Samsung and the business sector and industry associations , This year, too 5 Consensus reached in January , Will accelerate the ability to make chips locally . The Korean government is 5 month 13 Japan also announced , Will provide greater tax relief for the chip industry , as well as 1 Trillions of the won ( about 8.83 Billion dollars ) Long term loans .

summary : Of course , No matter what the future will be , At least in the second half of this year " Core missing " The problem of , It should be very difficult to get a fundamental improvement . According to the current news , Optimism is also in 2022 Mid term , It is even expected to 2023 year , The global supply-demand relationship of automotive chips can be restored to the level before the epidemic .

Maybe the second half of this year is not a good time to buy a car , If it's an improved car purchase demand , You might as well wait and see . But if you just need to buy a car, you can't , After all, the impact of the epidemic is still , The growth of private car demand can not be ignored . If consumers in this regard still wait for a good price in the first half of the year , In the second half of the year, you'd better pay attention to whether there are still cars in stock .

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