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Deep comment on whether automatic driving should cool down or add firewood?

2021-08-26 13:24:21 Car home

  [ Car home industry ]   Wei Lai, who caused controversy on the Internet, assisted in driving accidents , In fact, it has long been “ forecast ” here we are . A little over a month ago , Zhu Xichang, a professor at the school of automobile of Tongji University, once said in public :“ For assisted driving , When user expectations are much higher than system capabilities , Security problems are bound to arise .”

   Of course , Why do users expect so much , Car companies themselves know best .

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   For the development of automatic driving industry , Wei to “ Assisted driving fatality ” Perhaps it will be a landmark turning point , This “ transition ” It's a double-edged sword . The positive side is , This will make the whole society re-examine automatic driving , Piercing propaganda “ bubble ”, Promote the improvement of relevant laws and regulations , In particular, let users abandon blind expectations , Really realize the so-called “ Autopilot ” Level of development ; The negative side is , This may greatly disrupt the development of automatic driving , Let capital explode again , Make enterprises tied up , Further slow down the popularization and application of related technologies , All these are unfavorable to industrial development .

   Combining the above two aspects , The development of the whole industry should seek a balance , You can take this opportunity to take the initiative “ cool ”, United front of public opinion “ Internal volume ”, Let the industry return to rationality . but “ cool ” Don't overdo it , What really needs to be healthy , It's the hype 、 Lucky optimism 、 Blind promotion ; And the research and development of automatic driving technology 、 Legislation to promote 、 Capital investment , It even looks quite eye-catching “ User education ”, Not only should it not cool down , Instead, we should continue to increase the temperature .

Cool down the excessive publicity : Do harm to others and yourself

   Last year , Automatic driving accidents occur frequently , It's always a negative way , But consumers are always willing to rush forward . In this case, I'm afraid that the excessive publicity of car enterprises should be mainly responsible . This kind of excessive publicity is not a household thing , But generally 、 Collective over publicity , It creates for users “ You can let go ” Illusion .

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『 tesla FSD Interface 』

   I'm afraid the originator of this matter is Tesla . As early as 2014 year , Tesla started using “ semi-automatic ” Use this word to advertise Autopliot; To 2016 year Hardware2.0 launched , Musk said “ Hardware sensors and computing power are fully competent for future automatic driving ”; here we are 2019 year , Tesla officially launched FSD, Although Tesla notes in the user manual that this function belongs to “ Auxiliary driving ”, But look at this Full Self-Driving The full name of , And Musk's many public advocacy “ Can be realized L5 function ”, I'm afraid there are not a few users who are willing to believe that it is autonomous .

   As the initiator of the new forces , Tesla has become the object of many enterprises to emulate . This imitation is not just in the product definition 、 On the sales model , At the same time, there is also excessive publicity for the driving assistance function . So , Domestic enterprises stand on the shoulders of giants , Created a lot of new concepts , such as ”L2+”、”L2.5” wait , To his own L2 The secondary driver assistance package is “ Automatically ”, Play word games .

   For example , Type a keyword on the search engine “L2+” perhaps “L2.5”, Many models can appear at the first time , Among them, there is no lack of the main sales force of traditional car enterprises ; Even in polar fox alpha S On the official website page of “ Intelligent advanced autopilot ” Address of . And after the accident , Some new forces are clearly beginning to correct their claims , For example, ideal has been posted on the previous official website ” Ideal AD Advanced assisted driving system ” Of “ senior ” Two words have been deleted , Xiao Peng also named his auxiliary driving system from the previous “XPILOT3.5 Automatic driving assistance system ” Change it to “XPILOT3.0 Intelligent assisted driving system ”.

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   about L3 The competition is more for you to sing and I will come on stage , Car companies flaunt themselves as “ One of the first ”, As a result, there have been multiple of multiple car companies on the Internet “ The first L3”. such as “ Take the lead in realizing L3 Level automatic driving mass production landing ”、“ China's first L3 Class a autopilot ”、“ The world's first L3 Class automatic driving mass production vehicle ”、“ The world's first mass production L3 Class a autopilot ” etc. ……

   Not only L3, Individual car companies are also right L4 Launched a confused attack , For example, Weima automobile . Originally, Weima W6 Can achieve AVP function ( Automatic valet parking ), This function belongs to L4 One of the scenes of level 1 automatic driving . So Weima automobile defined this car as “ Limit the scene L4 Class I driverless ”, Even its official website directly marked this car as “ The first driverless mass production model in China ”.

   Manufacturers know what's going on , Industry insiders also know what's going on , But users ? I'm afraid my eyes are fixed on “L4 Class I driverless ” While ignoring the “ Limit the scene ” There are many people in .

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   And on the sales side , To preach about “ Autopilot ” It's even more common . What makes people speechless is , Most of the new forces Direct stores promote auxiliary driving at the sales end “ In advance ” and “ After the event ”. Before the auxiliary driving accident , Everyone's propaganda is often “ This can already achieve automatic driving , However, as the relevant laws and regulations have not yet been issued , We can only call ‘ Auxiliary driving ’, But some scenes can already be ‘ Autopilot ’ It was used .” And whenever there is “ Assisted driving causes death ” After the news , These new sales forces immediately put on a serious face , Special attention will also be paid to the explanation :“ It's just assisted driving , You must not believe it too much ”. But even so , When you say “ Then I won't buy the auxiliary driving option package ” When , Sales will be released immediately “ Our products can OTA upgrade , The future functions will be more and more powerful , More and more perfect ” And so on .

   such “ After the event ” The preciseness of , It makes people look more like a temporary improvement , I just don't know how long it can last ?

   In fact, the excessive publicity of automatic driving in the industry is driven by the following points . The first is capital driven .AI、 Smart city is the general trend , Autonomous driving happens to be a great capital “ The story ”, It is a stimulant for the carnival of hundreds of millions of investors . secondly , It is the need of the selling point of the model product . New energy vehicles have not yet formed an overwhelming advantage over fuel vehicles , You can't always compare with fuel cars 0-100km/h Speed up . Besides , Marketing “ Internal volume ” Very serious , Under the market advocated by the whole network , No car company can tolerate falling behind others .

   Users are guided by public opinion , You can't expect users to master technical principles . When public opinion tilts sharply to one side , that “ The truth ” It's too weak , At present, users obviously have high expectations for automatic driving .

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   In fact, car companies also understand , Such benchmarking “ Excessive publicity ”, Even if the market volume can be obtained at one time , But it also belongs to “ Quench a thirst with poison ”. As Zhu Xichan said , Excessive publicity to users leads to high expectations of users , When the vehicle system capability can not meet the user's expectations, it will lead to tragedy . And after the tragedy ? It will cause the whole automatic driving industry to fall into a crisis of trust .

   In a crisis of trust , If one day users don't want to believe “ Autopilot ” Promised ; Is capital still willing to invest ? If the capital is gone , This automotive revolution dominated by intelligence may not be sustainable .

   Arouse the reflection of the whole industry through fresh life , Return to the rationality of the whole society , Although it costs a lot , But it will also have a far-reaching impact on the development of automatic driving technology . This impact should not become a shackle of Technological Development , Instead, it should drive the industry to really do it “ people oriented ” Respect life , Abandon exaggerated public opinion to mislead .

Add fuel to technology research and development : Go through the darkness to see the light

   If it is said that the fierce public opinion guidance is the direct cause of the frequent occurrence of automatic driving accidents , Then the immaturity of technology is the fundamental reason behind . therefore , Misleading public opinion “ cool ” At the same time , But also at the level of technology research and development “ Heating up ”, It also includes AI The ethical norms and systems of the times are sound 、 Capital investment, etc .

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   stay L2 Before the time , To develop assisted driving scenarios , Car companies often have to collect 100-500 Ten thousand kilometers . and L3 And above ? If you want to really develop a complete system , You need to collect mileage data of hundreds of millions to billions of kilometers .

   But can it be completely safe with 10 billion kilometers of data accumulation ? In fact, to a greater extent “ Relatively safer ”.

   Massive data is the root of automatic driving , However, while emphasizing data scale, we should also pay attention to data “ quality ”, Run repeatedly on a simple road 100 The data of 100 million kilometers is meaningless . It's like an enterprise doing an autopilot demonstration on a road in Shanghai , The technology is very mature , Face pedestrians 、 Electric cars are able to cope with , Like a fighter among old drivers .

   The problem lies in , How many times has the system run on this road . Engineers can take all possible scenarios on this road “ To exhaust ” come out , But what if we take a new road ? From a small area to a city ? From a city to a country , Change to global ?

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   Autopilot is a commodity that needs to be circulated worldwide , From the first tier cities to the third and fourth tier , Tens to thousands of meters above sea level …… It's never possible to know under what scenario users will use autopilot , It is never possible to know what conditions the system will encounter , Even less likely to go “ To exhaust ”.

   therefore , Even if the amount of data is large enough , Also a “ A relatively safe ” The concept of . How many decimal places does automatic driving need 9(99.999……999%) To be safe , There is no way to quantify ,“ Long tail problem ” It's an extremely difficult problem .

   Because autopilot is AI The biggest application field of , In the future AI social , People and AI How to get along 、 People and AI How the relationship pattern develops 、AI The construction of laws and regulations in the times , It is also the key to the process of automatic driving .

   Explain with a phenomenon , The number of deaths from traffic accidents worldwide exceeds... Every year 100 ten thousand people , Violation of human factors 、 Illegal and other dangerous driving behaviors are the main cause of accidents . You can obviously feel , Public opinion is more than 100 Traffic accidents with 10000 deaths are far less concerned than 1 An automatic driving accident , The former can even be described as “ bland ”.

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   The reason behind this is , The current social system 、 Relationship pattern 、 Laws and regulations and ethical judgment yardstick are all “ Human centered ” Built , Autonomous driving is completely different . For example, this phenomenon is not an inhumane excuse for automatic driving mistakes , Life is priceless , No blasphemy . But through this example , We can see that when society enters AI In the process of , Need to break the old 、 A system unsuitable for development , Re established with people and AI A system of coexistence . People and AI Relationship pattern 、AI Laws and regulations of the times 、AI The ethical and moral standards of the times are not perfect .

   The absence of the above , It also makes autopilot fall into “ Tram paradox ” I can't understand , It makes it difficult to establish and improve the laws and regulations of automatic driving , The development of automatic driving is restricted . future , It should be done by AI Relevant laws 、 An in-depth discussion of ethical and social issues , Draw the boundary of law and ethics for the intelligent society , Give Way AI Serve human society .

   But in the face of these problems , Car companies 、 supplier 、 Or the relevant departments should continue to work in the right direction 、 Keep warming up , Increase investment 、 Guiding force , Through this darkness , Let the light come as soon as possible . During this period “ Heating up ” In the process of , More tangled may be capital . Over the past few years , In the field of automatic driving “ Capital winter ” It has also happened , This wave of negative public opinion may make capital shrink somewhat . In order to promote the continuous development of Technology 、 Make the industry bigger and stronger , For the extremely expensive industry of automatic driving , It is still inseparable from the strong support of capital .

What should the future of autonomous driving look like

   Although the development of automatic driving is bumpy , However, there is still a broad space for capital , On the one hand, capital is used to promote the breakthrough of key basic technologies , On the other hand, it is expected to be commercialized in the medium and short term “ Blood transfusion ”, Support industrial development .

   Automatic driving is inseparable from the support of many basic technologies , Like semiconductors 、 Deep learning 、5G、 Information security, etc . At present , Many basic technologies still face shackles , Technology like lidar has made great progress , But it still needs to be upgraded , Costs need to fall further , image 5G The technology is mature , But infrastructure construction 、 There is still a long way to go for market-oriented popularization .

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『 Self driving trucks working in mining areas 』

   therefore , Capital for chips 、 sensor 、 Data platform 、 Basic technologies such as high-precision maps should not be relaxed , Instead, we need to continue to increase the size . Application of automatic driving technology , At present, it is mainly implemented under limited conditions , It can be roughly divided into B End of the business sector , And face C End of the field of passenger cars . Like commercial logistics 、 closed / Semi closed park 、 mine / port 、L4 level Robotaxi perhaps Robobus In fact, all of them are B Typical end , Capital is completely promising .

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『 Working at the port , carrying L4 The liberation of FAW with first-class automatic driving technology J7 Commercial heavy truck 』

   Take logistics 、 closed / Semi closed park 、 mine / For scenes like ports , First, the scene is simple , The number and type of traffic participants decreased sharply 、 The line is relatively fixed ; Secondly, compared with passenger cars, it is relatively easy to bypass “ people ” This factor ; At the same time, there are a large number of enterprises in this field , Especially the hungry start-ups ; More importantly, the business model is relatively clear , Replacing people with technology can significantly reduce costs and improve productivity .

  L4 level Robotaxi or Robobus It's a little different . According to the caliber of the enterprise , Both of them have realized normal operation or commercial operation in local areas , For example, Baidu. 、 Xiaoma Zhixing 、 Wen Yuan knows what to do . I just don't have the ability to take down the security officer at present , Although the rights and responsibilities belong to the provider , But because of “ people ” This maximum security redundancy exists , At least it can protect the system security . Sharing travel is the future development direction , Most aspiring enterprises will choose to work towards travel service providers , The future market space is vast .

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『 The red flag Robotaxi Fleet 』

  C The main applications of the end are L3 Class a autopilot , At present, it is mainly restricted by the issue of authority and responsibility .L3 Level automatic driving, although the driving subject is the system , But it still needs someone to take over at any time , It belongs to a typical man-machine driving , Rights and responsibilities are difficult to define , Especially the accident of nozzle clearance . Many car companies are actually reluctant to vigorously promote L3, There are also voices in the industry that L3 Will be skipped , One of the reasons is the attribution of rights and responsibilities .

   The present , Car companies are actively promoting L2 Large scale commercial mass production .L2 The subject of responsibility is clearly determined as the driver , And the technology is relatively mature , More broad commercial space .

   Yu Kai, founder of horizon, has his unique thinking on the rights and responsibilities of automatic driving :“ Completely driverless may not be the main direction of development in the future , Because the subject of responsibility may still be the person .” According to Yu Kai , No matter how high the level of intelligence is , But the attribution of responsibility should not be entangled , The responsibility of the driver belongs to the driver . If not , Let's see if it's a sensor 、 Software or the responsibility of car companies , Only by clarifying responsibilities can the industry move forward , Otherwise everyone will be standing still .

   in general , Due to the particularity of automatic driving technology , By adding constraints 、 Clear division of rights and responsibilities , Coupled with the help of business model and capital support , In order to promote the rapid development of automatic driving 、 Large scale popularization and application .( writing / Auto House Industry commentator Zhuo Yang )

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 Deeply comment on whether automatic driving should cool down or add firewood ?  Car home
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