[ Car home industry ] 1820 Steam cars appeared in ,76 The law that discriminated against it was repealed after , until 20 century , The car has just opened a rapid replacement for the carriage ―― People who like to see history , I always like to use this story to compare the current replacement process of new energy vehicles to fuel vehicles . Let's not judge whether this simple reasoning is reliable , At present, new energy vehicles are widely used by governments all over the world “ Pushing hands ” Pushed into the fast lane, which is true .
China's new energy vehicle industry is taking the lead , The scale continues to grow rapidly . The data of the ride show , Before this year 7 Months accumulated , Domestic wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles 133.9 Thousands of cars , Permeability has reached 15%. from 2009 Year to 2021 year ,12 In a matter of years , The development of China's new energy vehicle industry “ face ” Constantly changing in exploration , One change that must be mentioned is ： At present, private consumption has really started , At present, the proportion of private consumption of pure electric vehicles has exceeded 64%. Current inventory , Based on this fact, we describe the current development of new energy vehicles “ Midfield war ”.
The current inventory is car home 《2021 Mid year inventory 》 The last part of the series （ I'm sorry it came late ）, The inventory of previous periods is as follows ：
market scale ： Throughout the year 200 Ten thousand vehicles are guaranteed 、250 Ten thousand cars can be expected
The wholesale sales data of the passenger union show , Before this year 7 Months accumulated , Sales of domestic new energy passenger vehicles 134.04 Thousands of cars , Compared with the same period last year 227%, front 7 The penetration rate of domestic new energy passenger vehicles has reached 10.9%.7 The monthly sales volume in January is close to 25 Thousands of cars , So it seems , This year's annual sales exceeded 200 Ten thousand cars are a certainty ,“ carelessly ”250 Wan can also easily achieve .
If you think this data is a little floating , Look at the insurance data of compulsory traffic insurance ――2021 In the first half of, the cumulative insurance sales of domestic new energy passenger vehicles 99.1 Thousands of cars , Permeability reaches 9.9%,7 Although the insurance volume fell slightly month on month , But still more than 20 Thousands of cars . You see , Even terminal landing sales , More than... All year round 200 Ten thousand cars is no problem .
however , It's better to be cautious , At present, the short-term risk of chips in the automotive industry still exists and may even expand , If subsequent chips continue to be in short supply , The lower than expected sales of new energy vehicles is also an inevitable result .
Power type ： Pure electric double , Insert and mix plates “ Here comes a young man ”
The pure electric sector is still more important than the plug-in and hybrid market “ Be favored ”, Whether it's scale or growth ―― front 7 Months , Total wholesale sales of pure electric passenger vehicles 111 Thousands of cars , Proportion 83%, An increase of 241%; Cumulative wholesale sales of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles 23.1 Thousands of cars , Occupy 17%, Year-on-year growth 172%.
at present , The supply and demand structure of pure electric vehicles is completely different from the overall automobile market ： Mini cars become the first leading , front 7 Last month's sales volume has accounted for 37%, And a substantial increase over the same period last year 548%. Mini cars sell well 、 It's easy to earn （ integral ） It also stimulates the nerves of car companies ,8 month 11 The second day of publicity 347 batch 《 Road motor vehicle manufacturers and product announcements 》 in , Yes 14 A miniature pure electric vehicle , It is jokingly called “ Agatsuma MINIEV( Parameters | inquiry ) Imitation show ”.
however , Don't cover your mouth and laugh , This year, the growth rate of medium and large pure electric vehicles is also very large , I'm sure you can guess , This is Han EV Why ―― front 7 Month Han EV Cumulative wholesale sales 44586 car , Accounting for... Of medium and large pure electric vehicles in the same period 69.2%.
In the market , Bike look , Ideal ONE Still number one , front 7 Its own sales accounted for 17%, This plug-in mix is on the market “ Young people ” Good performance . however , BYD carries DM-i The series models of the system have dominated the plate ―― The qin dynasty PLUS、 Han and Tang DM The ranking of models in the semi annual plug-in mix list is 2、3、5 position , In the past, the plug-in market relied on BMW 5 Department of new energy 、 View of path L New energy 、 The situation of Passat new energy, a mainstream overseas brand, has become a thing of the past .
『 The qin dynasty PLUS2021 paragraph DM-i 120KM Flagship 』
Next , Let's look at some consumption truths of new energy vehicles with a greater amount of information , Since only half a year's data were published when it was written , Therefore, the relevant analysis is mainly based on the data of the first half of the year .
Dumbbell consumption structure ： Expensive enough or cheap enough , All sell well
First look at “ List of Heroes ”. Agatsuma MINIEV There is no accident in winning the championship , The cumulative sales volume of insurance in the first half of the year is close to 16 Thousands of cars , The amount of insurance in a single month has reached 3 10000 vehicles , According to Wuling's official figures , This year, 1-7 month , Agatsuma MINIEV Our wholesale sales reached 21 Thousands of cars .
The following list shows that the cumulative sales of Shanghai Insurance exceeded 10000 A new energy vehicle , altogether 16 paragraph , Mainly pure electric . Among these semi annual hot models , For less than 10 A $10000 mini car has 6 paragraph , Among them is 4 In the top ten ; The price is 20-40 Ten thousand yuan 5 paragraph , All in the top ten ; The price is 10-20 Ten thousand yuan and into Top 10 Only AION S A car , But a little regret , This car focuses on B End travel market ―― At present, pure electric vehicles at this price have not entered the mainstream of private consumption , Later we will analyze .
therefore , At present, the best-selling new energy vehicles are high-end models （ Average selling price 20 More than ten thousand yuan ） And low end / Low price models （ Average selling price 10 Ten thousand yuan of the following ） Mainly , In terms of price and model level, it shows the characteristics of polarization , Dumbbell consumption structure continues to strengthen .
New energy vehicles with insurance sales of more than 10000 in the first half of the year , except AION S Outside , Are mainly private consumption ―― Expensive enough or cheap enough , Someone pays the bill . among 7 A high-end car （Model 3、Model Y、 han 、 Ideal ONE、 Xiao peng car P7、 Wei to ES6、 Wei to EC6） The total sales of new energy passenger vehicles accounted for 29%;7 Low end / Cheap cars （ Agatsuma MINIEV、 Euler black cat 、 Run E-Star、 Little ant 、 Colleway CLEVER、 Zero run T03、 Which zha V） The total sales volume of 32%. Look down , Low end cars are slightly better than high-end cars .
『 Zero run T03』
Regional market differentiation ： Double limit cities rely on the green card , Unlimited cities rely on low prices
As I said before , The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in the first half of the year was 9.9%, This is the average , There are differences in different regions . In restricted cities , In the first half of the year, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 24.7%, The penetration rate of restricted cities is 8.8%, Instead of the cities with limited travel and purchase, only 7.1%, Well below average . Obviously , Purchase restriction is also the main reason why people buy new energy vehicles , It is also the main driving force for the growth of new energy vehicle market .
Looking back at the dumbbell consumption structure of new energy vehicles , Also related to region . High end new energy vehicles are mainly distributed in restricted cities ; Low end new energy vehicles are mainly distributed in non restricted cities , The purchasing power is relatively low 、 And there is no burden of travel and purchase restrictions , New energy vehicles have lower use costs than fuel vehicles at the same price , Become a sharp tool to attract consumption .
data display , In the first half of the year, the best-selling low-end new energy vehicles were mainly urban consumption without restrictions on travel and purchase , The consumption of high-end new energy vehicles is still driven by policy dividends , Sales in cities with limited travel and purchase are generally 70% about .
We chose 3 A high-end car and 3 A representative of a low-end car , Look at the distribution of its sales areas , No accidents , The largest sales area of the three low-end cars is the fourth tier city , and 3 The first largest sales area of high-end cars is first tier cities . however , With the increase of green cars , The original intention of cities to relieve traffic pressure may disappear , And the growth of new energy vehicles , It is also very likely to bear the pressure of charging infrastructure expansion .
10-20 Ten thousand yuan “ Waist car ” When will spring come ？
as everyone knows , At present, the mainstream range of domestic passenger car consumption is 10-20 Cars in the price range of 10000 yuan , The biggest consumption base of fuel vehicles is in this gear . However, new energy vehicles are absent from this mainstream market . What is the reason why ？
In this consumption range , The price of pure electric vehicles is more expensive than that of fuel vehicles at the same level 4-5 Ten thousand yuan , The purchase cost is almost too expensive “ Half a car ”, For only willing to pay 10 For more than 10000 consumers who buy cars , This expensive part is too sensitive , For consumers without green card demand, it has basically lost its appeal . This is also the public ID The fundamental reason for the phased failure of the series in the Chinese market , Despite some bad judgments about its marketing , But the fundamental problem is ID The fall point of the series is wrong .
however , New energy vehicles will enter this mainstream consumption range sooner or later . This year, 4 month , BYD released e platform 3.0, The first two new models dolphin and Yuan PLUS EV It has entered the announcement of the Ministry of industry and information technology , It is expected to be listed in the third quarter of this year . Dolphin pre price 9.68-12.48 Ten thousand yuan , element PLUS EV Estimated price 10-15 Ten thousand yuan , In the future, more models will be launched based on this platform .
『 The dolphins 』
It's not just BYD , last year 12 month , Medium pure electric SUV Zero run C11 Open presale , Guide price 15.98-19.98 Ten thousand yuan , Maximum range 600km, Delivery will begin in the fourth quarter of this year ; This year, 6 month , Already in B Good sales in the end market AION S Upgrade of AION S Plus Officially listed , The price after subsidy is 13.96-17.26 Ten thousand yuan ;7 month , Compact pure electric car Xiaopeng car P5 Open presale , Open to booking a price 16-23 Ten thousand yuan , It is also expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter of this year . Besides , Euler's cat family will also welcome two children 20 Within ten thousand yuan “ New cat ”―― Lightning cats and punk cats .
Plug in hybrid cars , BYD carries DM-i The listed vehicles of super hybrid system have achieved good market feedback , The qin dynasty PLUS DM The monthly sales of car series have exceeded 7000 car , BYD DM The selling price of the main models of the series falls just below 10-20 Ten thousand yuan interval . In the first half of the year , Chinese car companies have released hybrid technology platforms , And launched relevant models , For example, Great Wall Motors is based on lemon DHT The platform launched Macchiato new energy , Chery is based on Kunpeng DHT The platform launched Ruihu 8 PLUS New energy , Changan Automobile is based on blue whale iDD The platform launched UNI-K New energy and so on . Industry forecast , There will be more in the future 10-20 Ten thousand yuan hybrid car is available , The supply of plug-in hybrid vehicles will usher in a new situation .
Tiggo or dingle 8 PLUS New energy
Although pure electricity and plug-in are aimed at 10-20 The consumption range of 10000 yuan , But it's predictable , This kind of plug-in hybrid model with price will lead the pure electric vehicle to seize the price range market .
Ranking of automobile enterprises ： Is Tesla likely to be number one ？
Last , Since it's an inventory , Let's go to the ranking of car companies . By wholesale sales , The sales champion in the first half of the year is still SAIC GM Wuling , The market share is as high as 14.1%; Tesla ranked second , market share 12.9%; BYD is third , market share 11.4%. These three are currently the first echelon , hinder , The total sales in half a year are less than 10 Thousands of cars .
The reason why top three is top three , Each has its own sharp weapon . SAIC GM Wuling relies on Hongguang MINIEV This is a cloud piercing arrow , It also attracted a large number of mini cars such as thousands of troops to meet ; Tesla's two cars , It has not only enlightened the trend of pure electric vehicle industry , There is a wave splitting trend in the global market ; While byd , It is the simultaneous layout of multiple technical routes in the top three 、 Most models 、 Auto enterprises with the most abundant self owned technical reserves . therefore , I don't have any family skills , That's true “ kill ” Don't come out .
Weilai automobile ranks No 7 position , Half year sales 4.2 Thousands of cars , He is still the chief of the new power of building cars ; Xiao Peng's car ranked No 9, Half year sales 3.1 Thousands of cars , Ideal car sales in half a year 3 Thousands of cars , But this is the result of only one car , therefore , The new forces of car building and single car sales crown are ideal ONE, The runner up is Xiaopeng automobile P7, Wei to ES6 Row the third place for new forces to build cars .
Talk about Tesla in full view . tesla 7 The sales volume of Shanghai Insurance in January died prematurely , Chain ratio 6 The month fell sharply by nearly 7 become , as a result of “ Domestic re export ” 了 ―― According to Tesla's official data , China 7 The wholesale sales volume in January was 32968 car , Among them, domestic sales 8621 car , exit 24347 car （ Include 16137 car Model 3 and 8210 car Model Y）, Most of these export models supplement the European market .
7 month , Completion and commissioning of Tesla Shanghai plant phase I project ,2021 The year is expected to come true 55 Production capacity of 10000 vehicles , among 20%（11 Thousands of cars ） Will be used to supply overseas markets . According to this preset , Whether Tesla, with full horsepower, can rank first in auto enterprises this year , Worthy of attention . However, the above expectations do not take into account the shortage of chips , Under the general crisis , No one can be alone .
Simple summary ：
All say “ Barefoot is not afraid of wearing shoes ”, But we also turn to history , You can see ,100 Years ago, after the advent of cars , Horses did not quickly withdraw from the stage of history , Even the per capita ownership and price level once rose for a long time . At present, new energy vehicles do wear war robes 、 Overhead halo , But it is also an indisputable fact that the fuel vehicle honed for a century has entered its best era in performance . New energy vehicles shouldering the important task of emission reduction and carbon reduction , Or a “ A newborn calf ”, Technology and performance need more honing , The market also needs to be subdivided infinitely , Different scenarios and users will also put forward various requirements , And this game on the table “ mahjong ”, I have to rub it for a while . Just , Let the bullet fly a little longer .（ writing / Car home Wang Jingbo ）
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