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The Ningde era of speed and passion needs to guard against the risk of ambush on all sides

2021-08-26 14:33:04 Netease automotive industry

( The original title : Ningde era of speed and passion , Need to guard against the risk of ambush on all sides | trace the origin )

In the face of fierce competitors , Ningde era (300750.SZ) stay 8 Increase firepower in June , These include 8 month 12 Daily announcement 582 Billion element Fixed increase plan ,8 month 18 A strategic cooperation framework agreement was signed with the Shanghai municipal government , And the signing ceremony of strategic cooperation agreement with Sichuan development company on the same day .

Founded on 2011 Ningde era staged speed and passion , Just use 6 Year time , So 11.84GWh( Givash ) Our achievements have ranked first in the installed capacity of power batteries in the world , In recent years, it has been chasing after the victory , Outside Ningde, Fujian , Still in Liyang, Jiangsu 、 Xining, Qinghai 、 Yibin in sichuan province 、 Zhaoqing, Guangdong and El, Germany ford Establish a production base , Now we have established a super battery factory in Shanghai .

Behind the rapid expansion , Ningde era is not a time of peace of mind . First half of last year , Ningde era, which holds the power battery orders of most mainstream vehicle manufacturers in the world , Once upon a time tesla The battery supplier of LG New energy takes the top spot in the world . With the addition of batteries to Tesla in the second half of last year , Ningde era finally recaptured 2020 The world champion in . thus it can be seen , How important it is to hold Tesla's hand, the world's top electric vehicle pin .

According to the Korean Market Research Institute SNE Research data display , This year, 1~6 month , The global installed capacity of power batteries is 114.1GWh, Year-on-year growth exceeds 1.5 times , Which ningde era to 34.1GWh At the top of the list , In the global market share of nearly 30%, Than the second place LG The installed capacity of new energy is higher than 6.1GWh.

Tesla founder musk proposed at last year's Tesla battery day ,2030 In, the production scale of power battery will form TWh( TWH ) scale , The single line capacity will reach 20GWh. This change is bound to revolutionize the existing process and manufacturing . Lithium Research Institute of hi tech industry (GGII) The outlook for power batteries is even more optimistic , It is expected to 2025 The global penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 20% above , This will drive global power battery shipments to 1100GWh, Step into TWh Time .

At present , China 、 The United States, the European Union and other countries and regions are speeding up the development of electric vehicles . Global electrification has entered “ Market demand at home and abroad resonates 、 Product power and policy promote ” New pattern of , In Ningde era, with the help of capital , Integrate upstream and downstream resources of the industrial chain , Accelerate the improvement of Technology 、 Scale up and reduce battery costs , To further consolidate its position as the leader of global power battery .

This time, , Ningde era expanded its investment layout in Shanghai , Accelerate the implementation of cooperation projects , More closely with Tesla Shanghai Super factory . Some media reported that , In the future, Shanghai Super battery factory in Ningde era can produce... Every year 80GWh The battery , It will surpass the present of Ningde era 69.1GWh The total capacity of the existing plant and other 77.5GWh Capacity under construction . Ningde times responded to China first finance and Economics , This is not the company's official information , The current specific capacity and future capacity planning have not been announced .

The pace of expansion in Ningde era is undoubtedly accelerated , This from 582 It can be seen from the RMB 100 million fixed increase plan , Its plan will be 419 Hundred million yuan is used for 137GWh power & Energy storage battery and 30GWh Energy storage cabinet project . CITIC Securities Research Department predicts that , This addition 137GWh The project will be in the future 2~3 It will be gradually implemented within the year , Ningde era 2022 The production capacity is expected to reach... By the end of the year 320GWh,2025 The annual production capacity is expected to exceed 600GWh.

however , In the process of rapid expansion , Ningde era also needs to guard against multiple risks . Although the future growth trend of new energy vehicles is predictable , However, the safety of electric vehicles and other problems still need to be solved , Besides , The epidemic has brought many uncertain factors to the auto market , The shortage of chips and other problems will interfere with the pace of new energy vehicles in the short term . The market is unpredictable , If the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales does not meet expectations , This will pose a certain market risk to the Ningde era of rapid expansion of production capacity . How to judge market demand more accurately and control the pace of expansion accordingly , This is a big challenge for the Ningde era .

And as the competition intensifies , The price of power battery market has always shown a downward trend . According to the data monitored by Ivey Economic Research Institute ,2017 year , The price of lithium iron phosphate battery in China is 1750~1955 element /KWh, The price of ternary lithium battery is 1650~1850 element /KWh; To 2020 year , The price of lithium iron phosphate battery is 531~639 element /KWh, The price of ternary lithium battery is 682~789 element /KWh. At present, Ningde era, which occupies half of the domestic power battery market , The cost reduction of power battery purchased by vehicle manufacturers is indispensable , But at the same time, due to the decline in the price of power batteries 、 Factors such as the rising cost of battery materials , Its operating pressure is also gradually increasing .

2020 year , The operating income of Ningde times is 503.19 One hundred million yuan , Compared with the previous two years, the growth rate of performance has slowed down significantly ; The gross profit margin of its power battery system is 26.56%, There has been a decline for three consecutive years . Changes in the gross profit margin of each subdivided product in Ningde era , To a certain extent, it is the result of the comprehensive impact of changes in sales unit price and unit cost . At present , Ningde era except with LG New energy 、 panasonic 、 samsung 、 BYD 、 AVIC lithium battery and other domestic and foreign battery manufacturers compete in scale , In order to cope with the decline of gross profit margin, we will continue to invest in R & D , Optimize product design 、 Production process , Improve production efficiency and product yield , Reduce the cost of materials and equipment through in-depth industrial chain cooperation .

Compared with the production scale , Technology is the more important moat . Ningde times is famous all over the world with orders from many vehicle manufacturers “ Hegemony ”, However, its relationship with vehicle manufacturers is not solid . It is worth noting that , GAC, which has in-depth cooperation with Ningde times , It plans to outsource battery production in the future 、 Deeply cooperate with battery manufacturers to develop and produce batteries and self-developed and self-produced batteries “ Walk on three legs ” The pattern of , Besides, the battery cooperative manufacturer of GAC is not only Ningde era , Its magazine battery technology is hand in hand with Ningde era “ enemy ” Research, development and production of AVIC lithium battery . Great Wall Motors followed 2016 Years and Ningde era in Harvard 、 Based on the cooperation of Euler and other brands , This year, 6 In June, it signed a ten-year long-term strategic cooperation framework agreement with Ningde times , meanwhile , Great Wall Motors is also accelerating the development of its power battery enterprise honeycomb energy . More and more vehicle manufacturers are outsourcing battery orders at the same time , We have also stepped up the construction of self built battery plants . The rapidly expanding Ningde era , Have to guard against car prices “ Change your mind ” The possibility of , And we should pay close attention to the of car enterprises “ heart ”, Having irreplaceable technology is very important .

In battery technology , Ningde era is constantly seeking breakthroughs .2015 - 2020 year , The accumulated R & D investment of Ningde times exceeds 110 One hundred million yuan , And this time 582 It is planned in the 100 million yuan fixed increase plan that 70 Billion yuan will be used for advanced technology R & D and application projects , Further increase R & D investment . however , Judging from the current information , Ningde era is more about lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries , There are many possibilities for the future power battery route of electric vehicles , Ningde times gambles heavily on the lithium ion battery route , It is considered that new capacity may be subverted . Is therefore , Except lithium ion batteries , Ningde times wants to break through in the fields of sodium ion batteries and solid-state batteries .

Besides , With the expansion of battery territory , The difficulty and risk of management are also increasing . This year, 1 month , The workshop of Hunan Bangpu old factory of Ningde times Sun company and Qujing lintie invested by Ningde times have exploded one after another , This sounded an alarm for the Ningde era , To become a real world power battery giant , It is urgent to improve the comprehensive strength in all aspects .

It's not easy to defend the challenge , Especially in the once-in-a-century transformation period of the automobile industry , Opportunity and risk coexist , How to grasp direction and speed , And guard against all kinds of risks , This is a difficult challenge that Ningde era has to face on the way to surpass itself .

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