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The rush of car enterprises to grab mines is coming!

2022-05-15 03:55:04Car loving Corps

Little friends who know about computers and graphics cards should also be deeply impressed by the price of graphics cards in recent years . In essence , The soaring price of graphics card is caused by the imbalance between supply and demand in the market , Specifically, use a graphics card “ dig ” There are too many people , And the graphics card supplier has insufficient capacity , As a result, the price of graphics card has been wildly inflated . Now , With the decline of mining tide and the recovery of graphics card production capacity , Graphics card prices began to plummet .


But no one thought at that time , One day, not only one person will join the mine robbing team , And businesses . Everyone must have heard of the Porsche storm recently , But similar events are not unique , It happened long ago , And it will continue to appear in the future . 

  Many reports show that , Under the impact of many factors , The shipping cycle of the chip has changed from normal 6 Months have been extended to the present 12 Months , Even some varieties will arrive 18 Months . In order not to affect the normal production and sales rhythm , Many car companies adjust their production priorities , Change or adjust the vehicle configuration to deal with emergencies .  since 2021 Since then , The price of raw materials for power batteries has been rising for a long time . According to Gao Gong lithium battery (GGII) Preliminary calculation of , Affected by the rise in the price of raw materials , The theoretical cost of cell and battery system has increased by 30% above . in general , Semiconductor materials 、 Chip related and battery related materials are in varying degrees of shortage and price rise .  Take a specific example , With “ lithium ” For example .2021 Beginning of the year , The price of battery grade lithium carbonate is still hovering around 5 Ten thousand yuan a ton , In the eyes of battery company purchasers , cobalt 、 The diaphragm 、 Negative electrode, etc , Probably more important than lithium . But with the sales of new energy vehicles rising month by month , Demand soared , The price of lithium carbonate began to rise fission ,10 ten thousand 、20 ten thousand 、30 ten thousand , Every price anchor , Have broken through the psychological bottom line of people in the industry , Until this year 3 month , Lithium carbonate jumped up 50 Ten thousand yuan high . 

High tech lithium battery (GGII) Our preliminary estimate is that the increase will reach 30% above , Reality has proved the accuracy of the calculation well —— From the end of last year to this year 3 month , The battery industry has set off two rounds of price increases , First round at 15% about , The second round is at 20% about . In a matter of 3 months , The increase of battery has been as high as 35% And there is a further upward trend .  Maybe from this point of view, this set of data is nothing special , But if you put it on the actual model , There is an obvious feeling . The price of the car before the price increase 25 Ten thousand yuan of pure electric models , Its battery cost is about 7 Ten thousand yuan or so . After the price rise ,35% The cost increase means that the cost of batteries is close to 2.5 Ten thousand yuan , For most pure electric models with similar prices , This is basically equal to 0 profits . The same increase goes to Hongguang MINIEV On this kind of car with extremely low profit , Direct loss . 

  The shortage of materials is out of order , On the premise that the cost structure has not changed much , Many material industries have become profiteering , However, under the impact of the epidemic, there is no way to further expand “ results ”, So that the market has been in short supply . at present , Many car companies and upstream and downstream of the supply chain have started the battle of competition .  Take lithium for example , China's lithium salt giant Ganfeng lithium industry 、 Tianqi lithium Co., Ltd , As well as the power battery Company Ningde times, they have successively invested in overseas lithium mines and salt lakes . But when new energy vehicles sweep the world , Under the soaring price of lithium , Lithium has been regarded as a strategic resource by all countries , It seems that the window period of using capital to distribute overseas lithium mines is no longer . This year, 1 month , The Chilean authorities stopped BYD's lithium mining contract with the Chilean Ministry of mining . 

So , More enterprises are beginning to start in China “ mining ”. But the reality is much more skinny . Again “ Lithium ore ”, Its mining cycle , First, limited by the laws of the industry , After exploration 、 testing 、 Prospecting certificate 、 Mining license 、 build a factory 、 A series of administrative procedures such as environmental protection examination and approval , It takes at least half a year to complete a set of processes . secondly , Mining progress will also be affected by resource endowments 、 Geography and climate 、 Policy, culture and other factors restrict .  The consequence of this is that car companies not only have to raise prices , And we have to reduce the allocation . Take Porsche for example , As a super luxury brand , When facing users, it must first consider increasing the price rather than reducing the allocation , After all, what their customers need more is not the low price, but the product experience . But even so , It is for this reason that they finally plan to reduce the allocation —— one can't make bricks without straw . 

Whether it's semiconductor materials or chips , Now it has become a short-term problem , And the problem is worldwide , This makes enterprises even “ Use far water to put out near fire ” There's no chance .  In order to solve this series of problems , More and more automobile enterprises begin to join the industrial chain . For example, major car companies began to develop their own chips , Some enterprises have joined “ dig ” In the ranks . BYD invested in foreign lithium mines before , Later, Tesla is the representative , Mining and refining of lithium ore upstream . As you can imagine , In the days to come , More and more automobile enterprises will join the corresponding material market layout .

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