The rush of car enterprises to grab mines is coming!

Little friends who know about computers and graphics cards should also be deeply impressed by the price of graphics cards in recent years . In essence , The soaring price of graphics card is caused by the imbalance between supply and demand in the market , Specifically, use a graphics card “ dig ” There are too many people , And the graphics card supplier has insufficient capacity , As a result, the price of graphics card has been wildly inflated . Now , With the decline of mining tide and the recovery of graphics card production capacity , Graphics card prices began to plummet .

 

  
But no one thought at that time , One day, not only one person will join the mine robbing team , And businesses . Everyone must have heard of the Porsche storm recently , But similar events are not unique , It happened long ago , And it will continue to appear in the future . 

  Many reports show that , Under the impact of many factors , The shipping cycle of the chip has changed from normal 6 Months have been extended to the present 12 Months , Even some varieties will arrive 18 Months . In order not to affect the normal production and sales rhythm , Many car companies adjust their production priorities , Change or adjust the vehicle configuration to deal with emergencies .  since 2021 Since then , The price of raw materials for power batteries has been rising for a long time . According to Gao Gong lithium battery （GGII） Preliminary calculation of , Affected by the rise in the price of raw materials , The theoretical cost of cell and battery system has increased by 30% above . in general , Semiconductor materials 、 Chip related and battery related materials are in varying degrees of shortage and price rise .  Take a specific example , With “ lithium ” For example .2021 Beginning of the year , The price of battery grade lithium carbonate is still hovering around 5 Ten thousand yuan a ton , In the eyes of battery company purchasers , cobalt 、 The diaphragm 、 Negative electrode, etc , Probably more important than lithium . But with the sales of new energy vehicles rising month by month , Demand soared , The price of lithium carbonate began to rise fission ,10 ten thousand 、20 ten thousand 、30 ten thousand , Every price anchor , Have broken through the psychological bottom line of people in the industry , Until this year 3 month , Lithium carbonate jumped up 50 Ten thousand yuan high . 

  
High tech lithium battery （GGII） Our preliminary estimate is that the increase will reach 30% above , Reality has proved the accuracy of the calculation well —— From the end of last year to this year 3 month , The battery industry has set off two rounds of price increases , First round at 15% about , The second round is at 20% about . In a matter of 3 months , The increase of battery has been as high as 35% And there is a further upward trend .  Maybe from this point of view, this set of data is nothing special , But if you put it on the actual model , There is an obvious feeling . The price of the car before the price increase 25 Ten thousand yuan of pure electric models , Its battery cost is about 7 Ten thousand yuan or so . After the price rise ,35% The cost increase means that the cost of batteries is close to 2.5 Ten thousand yuan , For most pure electric models with similar prices , This is basically equal to 0 profits . The same increase goes to Hongguang MINIEV On this kind of car with extremely low profit , Direct loss . 

  The shortage of materials is out of order , On the premise that the cost structure has not changed much , Many material industries have become profiteering , However, under the impact of the epidemic, there is no way to further expand “ results ”, So that the market has been in short supply . at present , Many car companies and upstream and downstream of the supply chain have started the battle of competition .  Take lithium for example , China's lithium salt giant Ganfeng lithium industry 、 Tianqi lithium Co., Ltd , As well as the power battery Company Ningde times, they have successively invested in overseas lithium mines and salt lakes . But when new energy vehicles sweep the world , Under the soaring price of lithium , Lithium has been regarded as a strategic resource by all countries , It seems that the window period of using capital to distribute overseas lithium mines is no longer . This year, 1 month , The Chilean authorities stopped BYD's lithium mining contract with the Chilean Ministry of mining . 

  
So , More enterprises are beginning to start in China “ mining ”. But the reality is much more skinny . Again “ Lithium ore ”, Its mining cycle , First, limited by the laws of the industry , After exploration 、 testing 、 Prospecting certificate 、 Mining license 、 build a factory 、 A series of administrative procedures such as environmental protection examination and approval , It takes at least half a year to complete a set of processes . secondly , Mining progress will also be affected by resource endowments 、 Geography and climate 、 Policy, culture and other factors restrict .  The consequence of this is that car companies not only have to raise prices , And we have to reduce the allocation . Take Porsche for example , As a super luxury brand , When facing users, it must first consider increasing the price rather than reducing the allocation , After all, what their customers need more is not the low price, but the product experience . But even so , It is for this reason that they finally plan to reduce the allocation —— one can't make bricks without straw . 

  
Whether it's semiconductor materials or chips , Now it has become a short-term problem , And the problem is worldwide , This makes enterprises even “ Use far water to put out near fire ” There's no chance .  In order to solve this series of problems , More and more automobile enterprises begin to join the industrial chain . For example, major car companies began to develop their own chips , Some enterprises have joined “ dig ” In the ranks . BYD invested in foreign lithium mines before , Later, Tesla is the representative , Mining and refining of lithium ore upstream . As you can imagine , In the days to come , More and more automobile enterprises will join the corresponding material market layout .