current position：Home>Compared with the shuffling of seats, this trend deserves the attention of all new forces｜Automobile
Compared with the shuffling of seats, this trend deserves the attention of all new forces｜Automobile
2022-08-06 05:03:31【Automobile Industry Network】
撰文 | 黄持
编辑 | 杨光
一年前,“蔚小理”Also playing on the sales ranking the permutation and combination,And then together to“万辆”Goal,Which zha and zero run run very merry in own piece of heaven and earth.People see the trend of new energy vehicle market and potential,But when new powers,Also dare not to“500万豪车”叫板.
一年之后,New energy vehicles in addition to the permeability from13%增长到25%以外,Market structure is changing so fast.
First-tier cities growth began to slow,Two lines and the following market expand rapidly,The highest growth rate close to200%.If divided by the price,8-25RMB ten thousand fastest-growing market,其中8-12Rose by ten thousand yuan market364%,而12-18Sales of ten thousand yuan market become the largest interval.
于是,哪吒、The outbreak of the zero run,并不意外.
“蔚小理”三强中,Remove xiao pengG3iInto the core outside the range,Facing the other models of the core market,都是一线城市、In the high-end price,And the market space is limited after all.
毕竟,放眼整个中国汽车市场,即便理想L9The Internet can rule,但超过50%Market share is still8-18万元区间.
The pattern of the new forces to the bad weather？
Actually new monthly seating order,Perhaps less important,Have been washed up on the fourth last year, another new brand,Now almost can't find the sign.更何况,And like gac Mr Ann、长安深蓝、Extremely krypton such“传统车企新势力”,And with huawei endorsed ask world,As well as the future set c、小米……
[ Who can take the lead in the breakthrough of new energy vehicle market bottleneck？]
Leading all the way“蔚小理”Recent pressure is a：
・ Li bin what supply chain tension makeET7在7Month less produced thousands of cars,From suppliers“Please everyone help to resist”;
・ In order to increase the order reserve,Xiao peng to offend the old owner's risks,在7Month opens the preferential promotion;
・ 处于L9Delivery of ideal,一边是理想ONE客户的流失,On one side is a succession of negative flow asL9On some shadow.
“8Month is the most difficult and most complex,8Month see dawn,第四季度Wei will go a step to.”
这句话,May also apply Yu Xiaopeng and ideal.
At least from the current to see Market feedback and order data,蔚来ES7和ET5、理想L9Should have a good sales performance,And xiao peng for internalG9Expectations also pin in the month5000辆的规模.
此外,小鹏P7将在8Month for change models,Will further enhance competitiveness,蔚来ET7The intention of customers also have half of the amount into the shop,,If carry capacity problem,There is still room for further growth.
趁着“蔚小理”The panting opportunity,Which zha and zero run across the eye.但也应该看到,尽管哪吒S和零跑C01足够热闹,而
Support them in7On the counter attack,Or more cost-effective,定位更低的哪吒V和U、零跑T03和C11.
10Ten thousand yuan low price range,哪吒V和零跑T03The practicality of significantly higher than that of wuling macro lightMINI EV这样的“代步车”,At the same time, there are no more competitors.
而哪吒U和零跑C11在20Ten thousand yuan less than the market also has price advantage,Combined with the interval is the new energy products of weak zone.
另一方面,The overall market rhythm by superposition of outbreak and policy,As well as the main competitive brand products on the time、产能等因素,也影响了7月的销量数据.
Epidemic better superposition policy stimulus,Especially the local government subsidies,让6On the auto market played chicken blood,At the same time also overdraw the next market demand,7On the whole market movements have fallen month-on-month.
And xiao peng car predict,Orders for new energy peak will appear in the11月,At the same time, the last two months will be delivery peak.If the policy does not change,New energy vehicles subsidies at the end of this year、Shanghai for plug-in electric hybrid vehicles license policies such as good will end,
“Consumer response to the policy is coming to an end will obviously”.
市场的“停滞”Permeability is also embodied in the new energy vehicles for months stay25%Instead of growth around.
Senior industry analyst at ease said：
“First, because lack of capacity,The second is the fuel cars depreciate sales promotion shunt new energy vehicles intention client,此外,规模最大A级车市场,New energy car sales have not substantive breakthrough,So the fastest will by the fourth quarter to see change.”
产能方面,Byd in changzhou、合肥、抚州、Xi 'an capacity will climb,Xiao peng capacity will also promote quickly,蔚来ET5Will the new xinqiao factory,Production of idealL9Changzhou factory has complete capacity.而哪吒、零跑、Changan deep blue new products such as delivery,Also have the opportunity to bring significant market incremental.
The new energy vehicles and tax policy under double stimulation,Fuel car prices also went to the history of freezing point,Output is enough、性价比提升,With the rise in oil prices expected is lowering,Also will be supported in the fuel car market space.
The car fuel at the core of12-18万元市场,Over the past year fell only8%,Is far lower than the overall23%的下滑幅度.
In the range of new energy vehicles,比亚迪秦、The song is subject to capacity constraints,Geely thor hybrid startup,而长安深蓝SL03Also just on sale.
长安深蓝SL03Nearly ninety percent of the order is sold for less than20The extended range of ten thousand yuan or515纯电版,May also indicate,The most solid fuel car plate loose is about to begin.
因此,The new energy vehicle market's real drama may is yet to come,Who can break the bottleneck of block penetration continues to rise now,Who will have a better chance in the market to break.
[ New forces out of the comfort zone]
By leaps and bounds of China's new energy automobile market gave birth to enough chance,That remove those“大忽悠”品牌之外,Any serious some new brand building cars,Found a chance.Mouth cannon dozen more huan,Also does not affect everyone broke the Chinese brands with the ceiling.
但“井水不犯河水”Each day be just fine,正在发生改变.
随着新能源车渗透率的提升,New users are from the pursuit of science and technology、Fashion become more pragmatic、精打细算.To sustain growth,Find a new story,Before they can expect out of the comfort zone.
于是,We have seen which zha、Zero run to20The impact of the ten thousand yuan of above market,Also see wei to more mass market“阿尔卑斯”和“萤火虫”Brand plan,Including ideal and xiao peng,Their new car into the same after no more expensive market.
Such as just listed which zhaS,In the spread of the volume does not lose chang-an yu deep blueSL03和比亚迪海豹,But to the market feedback is far away.
Compared with the price of brand after20.18万元的哪吒U,哪吒SPull up to the ceiling directly33.88万元.但限量999Yao of the version to sell for a month but you don't sell out,And even after officially listed,Terminal feedback is not ideal.
Here both the test drive and paint is not fully in place of objective factors,But passing a lot of network about car customers accumulation of brand awareness and brand image,上升到20More than ten thousand yuan market,Awareness of the new user community has yet to be increased.
Continued high in cost of raw materials and the environment of supply chain is still tight,Compared with the traditional car companies financial,New forces are more need to make a change on the sales structure.
Such as the wuling dare to bike less than100RMB profit selling cars,Because in the Shanghai automotive industry corporation in the market,靠MINI EVEarned double integral,Are a good business.比如比亚迪,You can rely on to control system of supply chain,In low profit for new energy market breakthrough,To scale to win.
对于哪吒、Started with zero run these rely on low-cost model of brand,The impact of the cost would be more violent.2021In which zha and zero run on deliveries are still lags behind that of the“蔚小理”一个身位,但
Bike net loss and even catch up with wei to、小鹏,The zero run as high as6.5万元.
卖得越多,亏得越多,In order to survive and have to sell.
But the pressure is more and more big.
Recently many zero run user complaints the tripartite platform,According to previous order zero runC11Continuous delivery delay,Waiting for the longest time even more than10个月.Just days before the price increases of zero run againT03,Have net friend say,就是为了“Disguised halt to the sale of”.
哪吒SThe battery is on the first listed smaller version extended range,Long range and the price is higher version,而520Standard life version released next year,Believe that there are for reasons of cost control.
Marketing consultancy JieLan road new energy brand channel layout data released by the,
Which zha with zero run covers most of the city,But also with two channel structure、三、四线城市为主,超过7成.
相比之下,“蔚小理”在一、二、Three line channel accounted for nearly ninety percent.显然,Which zha with zero run depend on channel sinking and price,Opened the rapid growth in the lower tier cities new energy market.
When which zha and zero run started to use more of your product through a second-tier market,而长安深蓝SL03The king pin model to20万以内时,Also means face to face with competition started.
同样,对于“蔚小理”来说,After the initial growth,Also need to think about the new market space where？
Such as ideal thought breakthrough40万以上高端市场,In the past two years, even including fuel car,Average monthly sales have only10万辆左右,One of the core wire with a new line of the city,也不超过5万辆.
Even if the new forces of the traditional luxury brands play the entire population,But sales of digital growth space is very limited.
而汽车,It is a“规模化”的生意.
这也就不难理解,For He Wei to build“阿尔卑斯”和“Fireflies plan”Two new brand positioning popular market.
这个类似于“雷克萨斯-丰田-铃木”的品牌矩阵,Let the three brands can be Shared in the core technology platform to achieve,At the same time in the brand positioning、设计风格、Research and development on relatively independent system,Can play scale effect,At the same time also can cover more market segment.
Brand new forces accelerating expansion at the same time,广汽埃安、Changan series of dark blue and vita o、Department of dongfeng haze figure、Saic think oneself and fly all that、Geely is extremely krypton andsmart、Even in huawei cerlords force……
These back against the traditional car companies,And absorb new forces operate brand,Also accelerating into the track.
更何况,And there are some slow elephants that appear to turn,But, after all, elephants.要知道,南北大众ID.在7Month deliveries have quietly breakthrough2万辆,Has not lost Mr Ann.
Close to the comprehensive competition.
author[Automobile Industry Network],Please bring the original link to reprint, thank you.
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