current position:Home>Car companies grab mines: go upstream to find lost profits

Car companies grab mines: go upstream to find lost profits

2022-08-06 10:58:52WeChat Auto

经济观察报 记者 濮振宇 Triggered by lithium wealth myth,Happening in turn in unexpected ways.

今年5月27日,The listed companies and co(400072)The chairman Zhao Deyong,怎么也没有想到,Company's share price would in the past73个交易日,累计68个涨停板,累计涨幅超过1600%.Suddenly become capital markets“香饽饽”,Let have been labeled as“垃圾股”All labels and,“逆天改命”.

资料显示,And all the shares in2019Due to the continuous losses of four years by the shenzhen stock exchange suspended delisting,Then transferred to the three board market.In the three board market after,The and is surrounded by all kinds of bad news:董事、总裁辞职,Provide financial support to the company strategic investors to terminate,Can't disclose regularly publish on time,Company's property was seized by the court、扣押、冻结.

Zhao Deyong feeling,His company may not turn on the day of the.但造化弄人,And the company's main business is a textile printing and dyeing,Later in the process of transformation into lithium mining,Win a place called“The party dam lithium”The mineral.Is the lithium and textile business unrelated“副业”,To the company planted a grain of life-saving fire.

今年,With lithium surged and the rise of rob mining boom,The and stock price soar.更让人吃惊的是,In the hands of the and of the party dam lithium actually because of poor management in the shutdown state,But still because of the potential of lithium cult.当前,In the long in the new energy automobile industry chain,Want to go to the upstream rob ore players list goes on,Power battery and vehicle enterprises is the most active participant.

据经济观察报记者不完全统计,去年7Month of a year or so of time,Power battery companies and car companies participate in the transactions of the lithium over20起,其中9To release the clear transaction,金额累计超过110亿元.这9Deals of participants including ford、比亚迪,And power battery companies ningde age、亿纬锂能、国轩高科.

For power battery firms and car companies ore riots,The depth of the institute of science and technology Zhang Xiaorong for the economic observer reporter said,Power battery as one of the core of the electric car parts,Joint and several related technology research and development and mineral resources have become industry new battleground.The downstream enterprises only by working hard can we avoid being marginalized upstream layout.

Downstream car companies to join the army steal mine

The electric car industry chain downstream enterprises by rob ore from two or three years ago began early,但直至去年,Participants are basic power battery enterprise.到了今年,In more downstream of the car companies are joining in rob mining boom.

2月,Great Wall motors chairman secretary said in response to questions from investors,Aiming at the condition of the battery resources nervous and price,Companies are also by lithium firms hedge costs,Increase the battery suppliers to ensure supply chain security.6月,Great Wall motor co. 's beehive energy and domestic lithium giant jiangxi feng LiYe sign《战略合作框架协议书》,The two sides announced in the lithium resources、Lithium salt supply and marketing aspects of in-depth cooperation.

As a new energy, the world's largest car companies tesla's head,埃隆·马斯克3In the social media articles:“锂的价格已经达到了疯狂的水平!除非成本提高,Otherwise the tesla may actually have to direct mass into lithium mining and refining areas.”

Shortly before the musk articles,Tesla was bound with two lithium enterprise,Including with lithium suppliers in AustraliaLiontown签署了一项每年不低于10万公吨锂辉石精矿的五年协议,Lithium and Australian minerCoreLithium达成四年11Ten thousand tons of spodumene concentrate supply agreement.

继特斯拉之后,6Ford also withLiontown签订了5年期协议,Lion-town每年将向福特供应至多15万干公吨(DMT)的锂辉石精矿,Ford motor will provide3Million Australian dollar debt financing,以帮助为LiontownThe whole process from development to initial production of funding.

There are some car companies,Although verbally say,But the action is a lot of.今年1月,比亚迪在智利矿业部门发起的40Ten thousand tons of lithium and bidding successfully won the bid8万吨,But the project was suspended for environmental problem later.3月,Byd to spend again30One hundred million yuan as a strategic investor can get shing new lithium lithium enterprise5%以上股权.5月,比亚迪在非洲觅得6News and in the industry of lithium mine refresh.

Byd relevant personage to the economic observer reporter said,Two official involved in Chile and Africa lithium news to comment.A person close to byd according to people familiar with the,Byd is in active layout industrial chain upstream,But the actual action of byd than attention to more、更早,Just to keep a low profile.

Even the Toyota is regarded as“Resist the electrification transformation”的车企,Also in the mining boom unwilling lonely.近期,Toyota and panasonic battery company joint venture PrimePlanetEnergy&SolutionsWith the Australian lithium boron minerioneer签署协议,将从ioneer美国RhyoliteRidgeLithium lithium project procurement.

此外,大众、Daimler and other car companies this year has lobbied through an authorized agency, etc,Trying to lithium is abundant in Chile,To persuade the government to expand lithium mining.Car companies to upstream for mine,Only from the public to buy mine car companies to see,The population has a lot of,You count not publicly but has been doing business,Explaining for car companies rob ore has become the trend of the automobile industry chain a remarkable.

“丢失”的利润去哪了

Why are car companies steal mine?Direct motivation is high battery costs,被逼无奈.“The battery cost pressures on to the makers,Our hosts were forced only backward integration to build cells and raw material layout.所以广汽也在做电池,也要去买矿.”Guangzhou automobile group chairman zeng has said publicly that,目前除特斯拉之外的新能源整车厂都是亏损的.

From the new building cars enterprises listed on the capital market to see,Wei to car in the first quarter gross margin only18.1%,环比去年四季度下降2.8个百分点;Xiao peng car in the first quarter of this year the vehicle gross margin is only10.4%,From the fourth quarter of last year to reduce the0.5个百分点.Ideal car in the first quarter of this year vehicle gross margin from the fourth quarter of last year, though not drop,But the basic is marking time.

But the car companies complain about high cost of battery power battery enterprise,实际上也是“冤大头”,They didn't make more money from the industrial chain as.今年一季度,Power battery enterprise profits plunged generally also,其中宁德时代、欣旺达、国轩高科、Million weft lithium can net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies(以下简称“归母净利润”)分别同比下降23.62%、26.13%、32.79%、19.43%,Fu can belong to the mother of science and technology and net profit loss2.44亿元.

不仅是国内企业,国际巨头LGThe situation of the new energy, there is income not ZengLi.今年二季度,LGNew energy net profit year-on-year in the first quarter decline in60.4%,与去年同期相比下降85.7%.“由于新冠疫情、Global supply bottlenecks、Metal prices reflected in the price of delay,Corporate earnings deteriorated.”LGNew energy executives have said on a conference call in the company.

Oems and battery manufacturers said no money,So who make the electric car money?In the era of ningde chairman yu-qun zeng recently2022The world power battery assembly point,产业链短期的困扰,来自上游矿产的资本炒作,炒作带来了碳酸锂、电解液等原材料价格的暴涨.

Yu-qun zeng puts it with actual data support.今年4月,Lithium carbonate battery prices hit50.3万元/吨,创下历史新高.截至2022年6月底,Lithium carbonate batteries and battery grade lithium hydroxide respectively, the market price of the47.55万元/吨和47.75万元/吨,The year were up 71.35%和123.65%.

作为国内“锂矿双雄”,Sky LiYe mother is expected to net profit year-on-year growth during the first half110-134倍;Jiangxi feng LiYe mother is expected to net profit year-on-year growth4-5.3倍.两家企业均表示,Company performance lithium sharp movements is the main product sales and sales were significantly increase compared to the average price.

Not only is a lithium leader,Other upstream enterprises with lithium all earn rich.今年上半年,Shing new lithium can be mother net profit year-on-year growth9.5倍,Salt lake mother shares is expected to net profit year-on-year growth3.2-3.4倍,Harmony home mother owns net profit year-on-year growth44倍,Mother yongxing materials is expected to net profit year-on-year growth6.1-6.8倍,Mother hidden lattice mining to net profit year-on-year growth43倍.

High industry institute analysis think that,车企、It isn't unusual to directly control the lithium battery enterprises,As car companies strong interest to the core parts in the same.预计1-2年内,Lithium resources will face a tighter state.“先下手为强”,Can be in the future market competition to occupy the first mover advantage.

实际上,Car companies and direct control of lithium power battery enterprises after,In addition to mining earn high premium upstream lithium resources,Can also take lithium for t,Improve the negotiation with the raw materials enterprises initiative.

Car companies to adopt industrial control

但值得深思的是,Hundreds of years in the automotive industry in the development of,Car companies building cars while going to dig,This phenomenon had ever seen.This occurred into the era of new energy vehicles is a new phenomenon.

“This reflects the interests of the automobile industry chain structure of fundamental changes have taken place in.”张孝荣表示,在电动汽车时代,Car companies in the industry chain control shaken.Electric cars brings dynamic energy transition,The value of the vehicle manufacturing is greatly reduced,No longer is the core of the industrial chain link.

Traditional car companies in the industry chain control,From the vehicle manufacturing high value,This kind of high value largely reflects the fuel car“三大件”(发动机、变速箱、底盘)The production and training ability,The emphasis has been placed on the ability is the key.针对燃油车,Car companies even“三大件”Choose outsourcing,Also have the opportunity to its own excellent set-up technology,Create a strong competitive vehicle products.And into the era of pure electric vehicles,传统的发动机、The gearbox are gone.

Renmin university of China international monetary researcher Chen jia for the economic observer reporter said,The global auto industry chain's own fierce change,Ningde era represented by the battery companies as a new leading industry,Profoundly affects the pattern of the industry's global interests.Car companies want to avoid the loss of industrial control,Must break through the bottleneck of supply chain,From the source to master the core of electric vehicles, including lithium resources,保持竞争力.

事实上,In order to control the battery part,Car companies in recent years has begun to build power battery factories,Just as a traditional car companies build engine plant.Traditional car companies in the past to the industrial chain of control,Often go to the self-built engine plant this step,No longer will do more upstream layout,The whole industry chain cooperation method is based on the division of professional.Now the electric enterprise,But not only to self-built factory,Still have to go to rob lithium.“Global lithium will one day be depleted,By that time the ore is,In whose hands,Who has control over,谁有话语权,Who would have real decisions for new energy resources.”5) new energy Zhang Li chairman said publicly in the near future.

问题在于,Whether it is a self-built battery factory,Or lithium mine,These areas are not oems expertise.再者,Car companies rob lithium actually is a short-term behavior,还是长期行为?These are all about the reconstruction of the new energy automotive industry chain eventually face.

历史数据显示,Lithium resource prices is not always rise,But the periodic ups and downs.从2015年初到2018年初,碳酸锂价格从4万元/Tons of gradually rise to15万元/吨.But as the lithium expansion、疫情爆发等因素,2018年至2020年,Lithium carbonate and falling to the lowest4万元.

多家研究机构认为,由于“长鞭效应”(In the supply chain demand information in themselves more and more amplification distortion), lithium and production and development of(一般3-5年)With the battery already(一般1-2年)The time difference,Long-term lithium resources will continue to show the periodic features of volatile ups and downs.

China merchants bank institute research report predicts,2023年-2025年,As lithium production release,Price will be phased back.但整体来看,Lithium salt supply side still can't catch up with demand and growth of a continuous and strong,Lithium salt will there is a shortage of long-term supply.2026Years of lithium salt will be a new round of supply and demand gap,支撑价格回升.

Zhang Xiaorong thinks,Due to the contradiction between supply and demand may exists for a long time,Car companies layout lithium resources,Not only should be as a short-term expedient for,But a strategic need to insist for a long time.

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