current position:Home>The danger signal of new energy vehicles!

The danger signal of new energy vehicles!

2022-08-06 13:13:56snowball

来源:雪球App,作者: 君临财富,(https://xueqiu.com/4009501516/227327948)

近期AStocks continued to adjust,Although occasionally bounce,但力度不大.

In king's landing view,主要是三方面的原因:

第一,长期来看,Overseas interest rates continue,流动性收缩,The economic outlook pessimistic.

This is the biggest theme,Under the shadows of the clouds,It is difficult to have a big chance,Therefore can only make a dojo in the shells of snails,The opportunity to find some structural.

第二,中期来看,Since the domestic top in7Released in early“不搞大水漫灌,不追求GDP目标”After the tone,The market of the heart becomes.

So the steady growth of the thigh is hold not to live,Only down to find safe mat.

第三,短期来看,百无聊赖,Mood completely dominated by political factors.

Taiwan drama,Military shares peaked in for two days,The United States to sign chip act,Let today's chip stocks and exciting sense.

But these are just mood.

One-night stands can,Into the scene you're lost.

今天跟大家聊聊新能源车板块,Some dangerous signals are there.

1

这周7In the auto enterprises sales figures are,有悲有喜.

Say first than expected,比亚迪16万销量,同比增长183%,以一打十,这个无敌了.

Second - and third-tier new powers,哪吒、零跑、广汽埃安,Qingdao huawei赛力斯,The collective superior,To open a beer to celebrate.

Tragedy is one of the original line new powers,蔚来、小鹏、理想,In terms of sales stalled,Leading momentum has disappeared,这就很尴尬了.

数据显示,蔚来、Xiao peng and ideal in7月,分别同比增长26.7%、43%、21.3%,Growth is disappointing,More before sales fell out of the new forces of all three.

环比来看,Is respectively reduced2909、3771、2601台的交付,下滑22%、25%、20%.

这是今年以来,“蔚小理”The third monthly sales fell from the case.

What is more uneasy is,Some negative news group released:

The ideal combustion、Air suspension is a problem;蔚来汽车坠楼,Security officer died;And xiao peng price.

消息显示,小鹏汽车Offline store already has a favourable activity,Including the xiao pengG3、P5和P7全系车型.优惠幅度在5000元到15000元不等,And also send optional package and auxiliary driving after the preferential packages, etc.

Security issues will influence the brand reputation,The price is made investors suspicious:新能源车Within the market volume will begin?

It should be clearly defined is:

究竟是新能源车The market can't,As wei small manage yourself now?

Look at the whole market.

7-8Month's car market is mixed.

理性的看,7月新能源车销量低于预期,有三个原因:

The first is the market expectations are too high.

6In sales broke out,There is a particularity of,一方面是4Outbreaks in question,Part of the order delay in delivery,推迟到了6月;

On the other hand is a government subsidy policy,Let the market the emotions,Major automakers also increased the promotions,Similar to an auto market version of the618活动,Part of the overdraft7In demand.

But these are unsustainable.

第二是7-8Month is market off-season.

Auto season and clear,通常9月到来年的1月是旺季,2-8Month is out of season.

所以,There is no good7月,Sales rose slightly down,也是正常的,9Begin to enter in the peak season,Should there will be a wave peak in sales.

第三,Although there are a variety of government subsidies blessing,But now the economic environment is still in a recession after all.

Want to an industry in a constant growth、More than expected state,After all it is not realistic.

The current situation,In the second half of the market to ensure smooth out.

因此,In the second half of the reduced expectations is inevitable,随之而来的,Just drop valuation.

————

再看第二个问题:Wei small reason also or not?

When sales growth is slowing,The volume will aggravate.

Within the volume is of multiple dimensions.

第一,With oil prices down,Traditional fuel vehicles to a certain extent, extrusion新能源车的泡沫.

今年上半年,Because of the influence of inflation,Oil price adjustment along the way,92Gasoline from step by step7Yuan level up to9元水平,这是新能源车Sales broke an important driving force.

What about the second half?

截至目前,Oil prices have appeared three losses,Fall back again8元的水平.

Fear of high oil prices on the market are disappearing.

第二,BBAAlthough has lost once halo,But the price aggressive.

Those who have never depreciate ashkenazi giants,奥迪A4L、奔驰C级、宝马3系,Now almost eighty percent promotion,终端优惠5-8万元.

这样的价格,难道它不香吗?

可以说,BBAThe start price war,Is the price in the same class of small wei manage sales low important reason.

第三,高端新能源车的火爆,Let more and more competitive.

7月份,在“蔚小理”The main in the high-end market,赛力斯Listed ask worldM7、比亚迪有腾势D9杀入,Their competitiveness are strong.

And geely's extremely krypton,Last month began to delivery of f,Power is also quietly.

下半年,比亚迪And seals and frigates07Two big bombshell,The whole market is gradually into the red sea.

Past the new forces against the piled material,用自动驾驶、Concepts such as smart cockpit attract buyers to try.

When the pioneer of the early adopters、The most radical after a group of consumers in the past,Market has ushered in the most mainstream consumers,They will not only see the new powers.

回归到本质,Cars, after all, is a durable goods,质量、安全性、品牌,缺一不可.

Now the time to spell comprehensive strength,The light will feed can not.

毫无疑问,7月份是新能源车的一个分水岭,The whole industry is from flowers,To the concentration of ascension logic transformation.

Buy is no longer the eyes closed,Can lie to win in the first half of the.

2

Downstream sales growth is slowing,In a hierarchical also is a bad sign.

Because the capacity of power battery industry chain,Is the rapid expansion of,In a short period of time is speeding car.

据电池网不完全统计,今年上半年以比亚迪欣旺达、Create of lithium battery companies such as Singapore airlines have announced several new building project.

The overall building capital super4391亿元,建设年产能达1069GWh,Compared to the same period of last year to further speed up.

看下面这张表:

今年上半年,宁德时代比亚迪、中创新航、国轩高科欣旺达、蜂巢能源,Six big factory installed capacity is more than double compared to the growth of.

下半年到明年,Expect their capacity to fall to the ground speed will be faster.

In the first half of the stock market,Look at the demand,高增长+产能扩张=业绩预期.

Every enterprise in the calculus of their,Seems capacity be born,Performance can get.

Entering the stock market the leek,Are fool by these wonderful story,巨大的市场,Enthusiastic sales growth,Permeability peak is still very far away……

Then banging drums in flange.

殊不知,Investing in the stock market which have so easy,If so simple,Everyone is a strands of god.

In the second half of the stock market,Supply is the most important indicator of.

When supply growth exceeds demand growth,A surplus of production capacity will be,Price war is about to start,Downward cycle also came.

The power battery industry in China,Is not only facing domestic,Should also consider the demand of the overseas.

宁德时代为例,Its overseas sales accounted for20%,国内增速放缓,All eyes naturally turned to overseas.

But overseas market also is very bad,今年7月,Britain's new car registrations fell9%,Germany fell13%,Norway year-on-year fall31%.

A tottering across Europe.

Domestic demand is slowing,Foreign demand for negative,Domestic production is soaring.

End there is only one possible future:车毁人亡.

3

Upstream of the resource prices began to fall.

Cobalt prices have been on a downward trend in the second quarter,5Since early has fallen40%.

The price of lithium carbonate a stronger,But growth is slowing sharply compared to the same,8In year-on-year growth from7月的423%Apparent way to304%.

@今日话题 

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